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In the next week or so, there will be political changes on both sides of the Channel. One change will be achieved by popular vote, the other by succession. Opinion polls in France over recent weeks have consistently pointed towards a victory for Nicolas Sarkozy, in front of Segolene Royal, the glamorous Socialist candidate. The former Finance Minister has made no secret of his desire to liberalise the French economy, and it would appear that the French populace have belatedly realised that their economy is in dire need of such up-dating. For Conservatives in this country, the decision on who to support in the French Presidential election is easy. For the Labour Party, it is less straight forward. Blairites will no doubt voice their support for Sarkozy. Brownites, however, may be less enthusiastic, maybe feeling that they should show more solidarity with their French comrades.
Even though Gordon and Nicolas have shared dinner in the company of their partners, it is less easy for the Chancellor to be allies with a man who welcomes favourable comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, hardly a darling of the British Left. The problem for the Chancellor is that Sarkozy promises economic liberalisation and a simplified EU constitution, two policies that Brown claims to support. He is, however, against Turkey’s membership of the EU and publicly more Atlanticist than his Socialist rival. Being seen to be pro-American is not electorally popular at present in Britain, particularly amongst the Labour grassroot membership.
Brown will probably fudge his position. Centre-Left politicians in this country now appear rudderless when it comes to foreign policy. The Iraq debacle has bruised Labour confidence in the field of foreign affairs. Indeed, the elevation of Margaret Beckett suggested that it was an area that Labour policy-makers felt was less important in the short to medium term. Having trumpeted an ethical foreign policy on their arrival in Downing Street, the Labour administration have since been left to lick their wounds. The dilemma over the French Presidency is just the first that the future British Prime Minister will have to deal with. What happens if he gets another Republican President in the White House next year? It would appear that foreign policy may become Mr Brown’s Achilles’ Heel during his hopefully short premiership.







