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Tomorrow’s local elections are being seen by the media and political parties as an important guide to the state of play in British politics. It is widely expected that the Labour Party will get somewhat of an electoral kicking. Indeed, I think it has been a rather good Labour tactic to pre-announce the Prime Minister’s departure – i.e. Brown’s arrival at No. 10 becomes the story, not the Labour losses. For the Conservatives, however, particularly in the South of England, the Liberal Democrats’ performance will be more closely analysed. Traditionally, the Liberals are disproportionately represented in local elections. My local district council, for example, is Lib Dem-controlled (Windsor & Maidenhead), and yet, there is not a Liberal Democrat MP in Berkshire (or Buckinghamshire). For it is the Liberal target seats that are most likely to be the toughest for us Tories to win back. And one of the main issues for residents’ in these seats will be the environment, not in a narrow ‘climate change’ way, more likely, it will encompass the broad concept of ‘quality of life’.
Since being elected as Conservative leader, David Cameron has, as promised, concentrated strongly on a ‘Quality of Life’ theme. This, he has argued, includes not just environmental issues but also effective policing and more policies to support the family. He has also highlighted links between grime and crime, emphasising that cleaner streets lead to reductions in crime and less anti social behaviour. He has promised policies in the future to deal effectively with these problems.
Before waiting for the next General Election, however, local Conservative Councillors have followed their leader’s direction. Up and down the country, Conservative Councils have been introducing locally-determined policies to improve residents’ living environment. Interestingly, of the top ten councils for recycling and composting in England, six are Conservative-controlled, none are Liberal Democrat or Labour controlled. In Conservative-controlled Hampshire, for example, Project Integra, a partnership between local authorities and a private waste contractor, has successfully provided an integrated solution to Hampshire’s waste management. As a result of this ground-breaking partnership, Hampshire now has some of the best waste infrastructure in the UK. Furthermore, local Conservative councillors have set themselves a target of a 50% recycling rate for the county by the year 2010. I believe it is this local concentration on effective, quality of life policies that will in the longer term reap electoral benefits for the Conservatives at a General Election.
By coincidence, Hampshire hosts quite a few Liberal Democrat-Conservative marginal seats. Portsmouth South, Winchester, Meon Valley (notional Tory marginal), Romsey & Portsmouth North and Eastleigh will all return to the Tory fold, if we can achieve a 7.5% swing at the next General Election. Indeed, if they do all return, then the entire County (with the exception of Southampton) will have become Conservative. Not only would that be good news for Hampshire residents and the Conservative Party, it would be catastrophic for the Liberal Democrats. For not only would they lose a strong foothold in Southern England, they would also lose one of their effective communicators, Chris Huhne. Ironically, by concentrating on the environmental issues, the Conservatives could very well guarantee the removal of the Liberal Democrats’ Environment Spokesman. Now there’s an incentive.
